By Charlie Plaza, www.CPbirds.com
As we enter 2025, the aviculture industry faces a dynamic landscape shaped by economic conditions, new regulations, and potential tariffs. Here’s a look at what to expect in the coming year and how these factors might influence bird prices and the cost of supplies.
Economic Factors Affecting Bird Prices
The state of the economy plays a significant role in the aviculture industry. In 2025, the U.S. economy is projected to experience moderate growth, with real GDP expected to increase by around 1.9%. However, inflation and potential increases in tariffs on imports could lead to higher costs for bird feed, supplies, and veterinary care. These increased costs may be passed on to consumers, resulting in higher bird prices.
Breeders might need to rethink their pricing strategies to adapt to these shifts. Furthermore, the delicate state of the economy could influence consumer spending, which may, in turn, affect the demand for exotic birds and related products. Let’s delve deeper into this topic:
New USDA Federal Regulations
The USDA announced several new regulations in 2024 that will impact the aviculture industry in 2025. These include changes to inspection and certification fees for bird breeders and others in the industry. While these regulations primarily affect large breeders, they highlight the USDA’s ongoing efforts to regulate aviculture,
and I anticipate it reaching the smaller breeders in the coming years.
For aviculturists, staying informed about these regulations is crucial. Compliance with federal guidelines helps maintain high standards of care and breeding practices, ensuring the health and well-being of birds. Needless to say, ignoring these regulations, even out of ignorance can be costly in legal fees and fines and eventually costing breeders their ability to legally own and operate in the United States.
Local Regulations
In addition to federal regulations, local laws can also impact the aviculture industry. For example, new laws in Florida taking effect in 2025 include amendments to building codes, including permanent aviaries and restrictions on social media use for children can have a significant shift in the aviculture landscape. While these laws may not directly affect bird breeding, they reflect the broader regulatory environment for breeders that sell to the public must navigate. Also, children often influence their parents' decisions to obtain pet birds. However, the strict community standards for social media platforms against breeders and the constant pressure from animal rights activists may hinder the ability of breeders to advertise on social media, causing an even bigger challenge for breeders selling their birds to the public.
Local regulations can vary significantly by state and municipality, so it’s essential for breeders to stay updated on any changes that could affect their operations.
Potential Tariffs and Their Impact
Tariffs are another critical factor that could influence the aviculture industry in 2025. Higher tariffs on imports from key trading partners, such as China, Canada, and Mexico, are expected. These tariffs could increase the cost of imported goods, including bird cages, food, and other supplies essential for breeding and raising birds.
Breeders may need to explore alternative suppliers or adjust their budgets to account for these higher costs. Diversifying supply chains and planning for potential price increases can help mitigate the impact of tariffs on their operations. However, no matter how much we can mitigate the rising costs and the expense of breeding birds, ultimately, these costs would have to be factored into the baby birds being sold, thus increasing bird prices.
Fuel, Labor and Energy Costs
I recently spoke with the CEO of a major bird feed producer in the United States, and he shared an insightful point worth discussing. He mentioned that feed costs sourced and produced in the USA might remain stable or see only a minimal increase in price. This is because all the seed we will consume in 2025 has already been produced and stored in 2024, meaning this year’s factors won’t impact prices significantly. He also noted, "anyone can buy and transport a 50lb bag of bird seed but when you request 300,000 pounds of sunflower seeds, it complicates things". The complexity arises from the need of lots of people (labor), a lot of transport (fuel), and a large amount of space (storage) to produce the final product for consumers, including breeders and pet stores.
As the new administration takes office, they have pledged to boost USA fuel production, which should help lower fuel and energy prices. Additionally, lower taxes will help offset other costs, providing breeders with some relief to counteract increases in other areas.
Conclusion
The aviculture industry in 2025 will be influenced by a mix of economic conditions, regulatory changes, and potential tariffs. I foresee two competing forces at play. While the future remains uncertain, we can already observe signs of tightening within the aviculture sector.
On one hand, new regulations affecting breeders, rising prices for goods and veterinary services, and a reduced supply due to smaller breeders going out of business could drive bird prices higher. On the other hand, a stronger economy with lower taxes, reduced fuel and energy costs, and decreased demand for pet birds due to economic challenges like inflation, combined with difficulties in advertising pet birds on social media, may help stabilize prices and regulate the market.
Breeders must stay informed and adaptable to navigate these challenges successfully. By focusing on compliance, exploring cost-saving measures, and maintaining high standards of care, the aviculture community can continue to thrive and provide healthy, well-cared-for birds to enthusiasts and pet owners alike.
Feel free to share your thoughts or ask any questions in the comments below. Happy 2025 breeding season!
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